It is tempting to make predictions of the skills that our students will need beyond their time at school. Such wondering can be a useful guide as we contemplate what we shall focus on with our curriculum. Unsurprisingly, there is no shortage of predictions for future skillsets published by educators, economists and analysts. What might we learn from such lists, and how should education systems respond?
Last week I considered the question of how we prepare for unknown unknowns. Those who seek to gaze into the future are hoping that the conditions we see in the economy and the worlds of work and society today are reliable indicators for the trends of tomorrow. The number of such reports seems to be increasing, and the frequency at which they are updated appears to be shortening. It appears that these are indeed postnormal times when the pace of change is such that predictions of the future have a short lifespan. Sardar describes these “postnormal times” as “Ours is a transitional age, a time without the confidence that we can return to any past we have known and with no confidence in any path to a desirable, attainable or sustainable future.” (Sardar, 2010)
The volatile and unpredictable nature of our current times is reflected in the titles of the research papers which seek to predict how education systems might best respond. The Australian Secondary Principals’ Association (ASPA) commissioned “Beyond Certainty: A process for thinking about futures for Australian education”. Economists, PWC have published a range of articles including “A Smart Move” in 2015 with an emphasis on the importance of STEAM disciplines and more recently “Workforce of the Future: The competing forces shaping 2030” that suggests we may have beyond a STEAM driven imperative. The Foundation For Young Australians (FYA) has published numerous papers with titles such as “The new work basics”, “The new work smarts” and “The new work mindset” emphasising that the world of work is changing for young people and that flexibility in these times of ‘newness’ is essential. A report prepared for the NSW Department of Education on the critical implications for school education of artificial intelligence and other emerging transformations was titled “Preparing for the best and worst of times” playing on the fear and promise of modern times.
Perhaps the most prolific predictor of future times is the World Economic Forum. On an almost annual basis, they have published a series of predictions for the world of work in the short and near future. These reports show a subtle and consistent shift in the skills predicted to be of most value and the trend is most certainly towards flexible, adaptable skills and lifelong learning. The results of the 2018 “Future of Jobs Report” is summarised in the image below.
Click image to enlarge.
The clear pattern is that the ability to solve complex problems with critical and creative thinking skills continues as do the importance of active learning and learning strategies. If the WEF is right, our young people will need to be analytical thinkers who innovate, understand complex systems and possess emotional intelligence and leadership capabilities. On the decline, by contrast, are skills for memorisation, management, technology use and base skills for reading, writing, math and the darling of so many classrooms “active listening”.
Skills continuing to grow in prominence by 2022 include analytical thinking and innovation as well as active learning and learning strategies.
World Economic Forum - The Future of Jobs Report 2018
The continued emphasis on the skills of “Active learning and learning strategies” is significant. In times of change, the ability to learn, unlearn and relearn is crucial. This was predicted by Alvin Toffler’s 1970 text “Future Shock” where he wrote:
“By instructing students how to learn, unlearn and relearn, a powerful new dimension can be added to education… Tomorrow’s illiterate will not be the man who can’t read; he will be the man who has not learned how to learn.” (Toffler. 1970 p211)
This is also noted by Professor Alan Reid, the author of the ASPA’s “Beyond Certainty” report who points to the importance of “meta-learning” alongside general capabilities and a contemporary curriculum comprising disciplinary and interdisciplinary learning. Indeed learning is described by Reid as “a key to living in the 21st century”, and an understanding of learning is deemed crucial.
Meta-learning is the capacity to understand oneself as a learner and the process of learning. It goes beyond metacognition, taking in new understandings about learning in fields as disparate as neuroscience and the functioning of the brain, emotional, sensory and social learning, cognitive psychology, and learning and physical movement. Learning about learning is fundamental in an information/knowledge society where knowledge is expanding at an exponential rate. (Reid. 2018 p6)
By acknowledging the importance of learning to learn and with that the capacity to be self-navigating learners, these reports recognise that the future is assuredly full of unknown unknowns. The best preparation for such a future is to own the capacity to learn and even teach oneself fresh skills on demand. Rather than developing a specific skills set adaptability is the key to success in an ever-changing future, and it is adaptability that PWC describes as “the key to the future”.
One clear lesson arises from our analysis: adaptability – in organisations, individuals and society – is essential for navigating the changes ahead. It’s impossible to predict exactly the skills that will be needed even five years from now, so workers and organisations need to be ready to adapt (PWC. 2018 p31)
What then are the implications for schools? How do we ensure that our students are presented with opportunities to understand how they learn and to take charge of their learning? How do we do this in a culture of standardised testing and an overcrowded curriculum that allows little time for deeply reflective meta-learning as described by Professor Reid? When will our students experience and engage in genuine creative problem solving that requires innovation and critical thinking? Will these be a part of their time in schools or will they be put on hold and first experienced by young people as they enter the world of work?
By Nigel Coutts
PWC (2018). Workforce of the Future: The competing forces shaping 2030. PWC
Reid, A. (2018). Beyond Certainty: A process for thinking about futures for Australian education. Australian Secondary Principals’ Association (ASPA)
Toffler, A. (1970). Future shock. New York: Random House.
World Economic Forum (2018) - The Future of Jobs Report 2018. Centre for the New Economy and Society