It is almost precisely eighteen years since Donald Rumsfeld uttered his now well-regarded commentary on the danger of “unknown unknowns”. At the time his remarks brought more confusion than clarity and reinforced for many a belief that politicians use words to conceal the truth. Somehow though, Donald’s words from 2002 seem to fit the world of today, and the challenges confronting educators all too well.
Here is Rumsfeld’s reply:
Reports that say that something hasn’t happened are always interesting to me, because as we know, there are known knowns; there are things we know we know. We also know there are known unknowns; that is to say we know there are some things we do not know. But there are also unknown unknowns – the ones we don’t know we don’t know. And if one looks throughout the history of our country and other free countries, it is the latter category that tend to be the difficult ones. - Donald Rumsfeld (2002)
When we consider what our children will need to learn from their time at school, we must consider known knowns, known unknowns, and unknown unknowns. But what does this mean and how might we respond?
Known knowns are the most straightforward points to deal with. These are the pieces of knowledge, the skills and dispositions we know our children will need in the lives they are likely to live. We know they will need fundamental skills for communication and mathematical reasoning. We know that they will need to know how to interact with others, how to build and maintain relationships. They will need to know how to balance their lives and maintain a healthy and happy disposition. A sense of empathy will serve them well as will respect for diversity. They should be aware that they occupy a world governed by social norms that change and evolve and which have been shaped by our collective pasts. They should also be aware that they share their world with many other people and that not all these people benefit from the privileges of power experienced by others. An awareness of the politics of power and the impact that this has on the world they share is vital. They will need to understand that our world is fragile, beautiful and fierce. A capacity to reason logically, a desire to seek evidence in support of claims made by themselves and others and a great sense of curiosity seem vital. Definitely, they will need to understand that volatility, uncertainty, complexity and ambiguity abound, and that change is the one constant they can depend upon.
These are the known knowns, and one might expect our education system to be able to meet these needs very well. In some ways, we are doing well, and there is a definite move in the right direction. This is countered by calls for a return to basics, even if those doing so are unclear on what these might be. Our students do seem to spend a lot of time memorising facts, rehearsing procedures, preparing to utilise outmoded methods and solving problems with well-known solutions. We claim that critical thinking, collaboration and creativity matter most and yet our high-stakes testing focuses on individual knowledge best achieved through rote memorisation. It is in this way that we perhaps most fall down as much of the good work we do in building dispositions that matter is undone by an assessment regime which values base skills and recall of facts. And in place of devoting time to problem finding, curiosity, wondering, and reflective thought, we bombard our students with more and more content delivered in discrete packages even though we know information is ubiquitous.
In such a world, the last thing a teacher needs to give her pupils is more information. They already have far too much of it. Instead, people need the ability to make sense of information, to tell the difference between what is important and what is unimportant, and above all to combine many bits of information into a broad picture of the world. (Harari, Yuval Noah)
We must also consider the “known unknowns”. These are things we know will change in the future, and are likely to play a role in the lives our children will live, but their exact form is unknown. Technology will continue to play a significant part in our daily lives, but our best predictions of what this might look like may well be wrong. Artificial intelligence is likely to play a role in the world of work that our Kindergarten students of today will experience, but what impact will it have? Climate change is another known unknown. We know that our climate is set to continue to change, but the exact effect that this will have remains uncertain as is the nature of our response to it. The worlds of work, politics, and society are all set to change and evolve as they have always done, and as is always the case, we might only guess at what shape they will take.
In response to these “known unknowns” we can develop strategies which are likely to serve our children well. If they understand that they can be the masters of technology and utilise it to meet their needs, then they might be better prepared for the technologies which evolve in the coming decades. Knowledge of the science of climate change, and a desire to utilise the power of science to understand and shape the world, might be the best preparation for an unstable climate. The ability to think flexibly, to ask questions and approach the world with a positive scepticism seems like the right disposition for whatever might confront us in the areas of work, society and politics. The development of these dispositions and understandings should not be an add on, but a core component of our curriculum and we must continue to seek pedagogies which serve the needs of our learners in these domains.
Lastly, we come to consider the “unknown unknowns”, that which we do not know we don’t know. At this point, even the best crystal ball fails to meet our needs. We are now beyond the point of imagination and have accepted that there will be aspects of our futures and our children’s futures which we might not predict. How do we prepare for these “unknown unknowns”? Our best path of action might be to retain our sense of curiosity and wonderment and make space in our curriculum for the imagination of educators who are travelling with their students into an unknown future.
Educating for the unknown, far from an unapproachable paradox, can be an alluring and inspiring agenda. Rather than counseling despair, educating for the unknown favors a vision of learning aggressive in its effort to foster curiosity, enlightenment, empowerment, and responsibility in a complex and dynamic world. It favors a broad and visionary reach for meaningful learning. (David Perkins - “Future Wise”)
These are indeed exciting and challenging times. They are times that require the very best from us as educators. Our role extends far beyond the transfer of knowledge from one generation to the next. The challenge of the unknown, calls on us to educate our children so that they may confront it, armed with knowledge, intellect, curiosity, creativity, empathy and a desire to understand. To be that person who prepares a young mind for success in the modern world is undoubtedly the most rewarding of endeavours and is the great privilege that comes with being a teacher.
By Nigel Coutts
Harari, Yuval Noah. (2018) 21 Lessons for the 21st Century. Random House. Kindle Edition.
Perkins, D. “Future Wise: Educating our children for a changing world”, San Francisco, Josey-Bass, 2014, 274 p.